Nobody Likes Him
09-15-2004, 10:21 AM
#1
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Nobody Likes Him
NOBODY LIKES HIM
By DICK MORRIS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
September 15, 2004 -- JOHN Kerry is in deeper trouble than the polls indicate. While the Fox News survey taken last week after the Republican convention shows Bush with a small lead over Kerry, the internal data indicates big shifts against the Democrat.
For example, Kerry is now seen unfavorably by a record 44 percent of the voters (his personal worst), giving him a slightly higher unfavorable ratio than Bush — whom 43 percent dislike. (Bush's edge comes from the fact that he gets 51 percent to rate him favorably, while Kerry has only a 46 percent favorable rating.)
But worse, the poll shows that Kerry must face a basic problem: His own voters don't like him very much.
The Fox News poll asked Kerry supporters if their vote for the Democrat could best be described as motivated by support for Kerry (41 percent) or by opposition to Bush (51 percent). By contrast, Bush voters emphatically say, by 82-13, that they are voting for the president rather than against the challenger.
This puts Kerry in a tough position in the coming debates. He has no real base of support and any attenuation of the dislike his voters feel for Bush will weaken him substantially. All Bush has to do is to persuade a few Kerry voters to stop disliking him, and he can get their votes. There is no residual affection for the Democrat to get in the way of their switching to the president.
The polls already have shown how Kerry's own voters break almost evenly on the issues, with half supporting the war in Iraq and half opposing it, and almost equal numbers saying we must stay the course as say we should bring the troops home.
So Kerry can't use issues to hold his own in the debates: Whatever he says will antagonize some of his base. And now it's plain that he can't rely on personal popularity to hold them, since most are just voting against Bush.
If the president gives an even moderately effective presentation and comes across as even somewhat likeable, he can cut deeply into Kerry's vote.
In addition, the poll shows that there has been a shift in the issues on which voters are focused. Those who identify terrorism or homeland security as key issues has risen from 7 percent before the convention to 22 percent afterward, and issues such as taxes and gay marriage, which did not make the polls before, now draw 4 percent each who feel they are the most important issue before the nation.
Asked which is more important in their votes, national security or the nation's economy, voters split 45-38 for security — a clear Bush win.
The electorate remains sharply divided in its loyalties based on voters' perception of the most important issue. Of those who see security as key, Bush wins by 68-28, while Kerry triumphs among those who focus most on the economy by 56-19.
Underscoring Kerry's popularity problems, voters rate Bush better on a host of adjectives. Who is the stronger leader? Bush, by 51-37. Who is more honest and trustworthy? Bush, 42-37. Who will make the United States a stronger country? Bush, 46-40. Who takes strong stands and sticks with them? Bush, 56-27.
Kerry only wins "Who understands the average American better?" — and by only 43-36.
Kerry never had time to make America like him. He won the nomination before anyone really got to know him and has coasted on anti-Bush campaigning ever since. Even now, he relies on the old National Guard records of Bush to animate his campaign, as if we are about to form our judgment of how Bush would be as a commander based on 30-year- old, possibly forged records rather than on our own observation of how he has done the job. But Kerry has got to close the most fundamental gap of his candidacy: Voters don't like him very much.
By DICK MORRIS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
September 15, 2004 -- JOHN Kerry is in deeper trouble than the polls indicate. While the Fox News survey taken last week after the Republican convention shows Bush with a small lead over Kerry, the internal data indicates big shifts against the Democrat.
For example, Kerry is now seen unfavorably by a record 44 percent of the voters (his personal worst), giving him a slightly higher unfavorable ratio than Bush — whom 43 percent dislike. (Bush's edge comes from the fact that he gets 51 percent to rate him favorably, while Kerry has only a 46 percent favorable rating.)
But worse, the poll shows that Kerry must face a basic problem: His own voters don't like him very much.
The Fox News poll asked Kerry supporters if their vote for the Democrat could best be described as motivated by support for Kerry (41 percent) or by opposition to Bush (51 percent). By contrast, Bush voters emphatically say, by 82-13, that they are voting for the president rather than against the challenger.
This puts Kerry in a tough position in the coming debates. He has no real base of support and any attenuation of the dislike his voters feel for Bush will weaken him substantially. All Bush has to do is to persuade a few Kerry voters to stop disliking him, and he can get their votes. There is no residual affection for the Democrat to get in the way of their switching to the president.
The polls already have shown how Kerry's own voters break almost evenly on the issues, with half supporting the war in Iraq and half opposing it, and almost equal numbers saying we must stay the course as say we should bring the troops home.
So Kerry can't use issues to hold his own in the debates: Whatever he says will antagonize some of his base. And now it's plain that he can't rely on personal popularity to hold them, since most are just voting against Bush.
If the president gives an even moderately effective presentation and comes across as even somewhat likeable, he can cut deeply into Kerry's vote.
In addition, the poll shows that there has been a shift in the issues on which voters are focused. Those who identify terrorism or homeland security as key issues has risen from 7 percent before the convention to 22 percent afterward, and issues such as taxes and gay marriage, which did not make the polls before, now draw 4 percent each who feel they are the most important issue before the nation.
Asked which is more important in their votes, national security or the nation's economy, voters split 45-38 for security — a clear Bush win.
The electorate remains sharply divided in its loyalties based on voters' perception of the most important issue. Of those who see security as key, Bush wins by 68-28, while Kerry triumphs among those who focus most on the economy by 56-19.
Underscoring Kerry's popularity problems, voters rate Bush better on a host of adjectives. Who is the stronger leader? Bush, by 51-37. Who is more honest and trustworthy? Bush, 42-37. Who will make the United States a stronger country? Bush, 46-40. Who takes strong stands and sticks with them? Bush, 56-27.
Kerry only wins "Who understands the average American better?" — and by only 43-36.
Kerry never had time to make America like him. He won the nomination before anyone really got to know him and has coasted on anti-Bush campaigning ever since. Even now, he relies on the old National Guard records of Bush to animate his campaign, as if we are about to form our judgment of how Bush would be as a commander based on 30-year- old, possibly forged records rather than on our own observation of how he has done the job. But Kerry has got to close the most fundamental gap of his candidacy: Voters don't like him very much.
09-15-2004, 11:27 AM
#3
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Re: Nobody Likes Him
Another Right-Wing Bias Report.... "Fox News", "Dick Morris"... all Reps. What else do you expect?
Should I go find a Dem Bias Report for you? Two-sides to everything brotha.
Lata,
Brian
Should I go find a Dem Bias Report for you? Two-sides to everything brotha.
Lata,
Brian
09-15-2004, 02:00 PM
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Re: Nobody Likes Him
For someone who graduated from Yale, Bush sounds like someone who failed out of Bunker Hill CC, but when more than half this country is as dumb, or even dumber than him he still can succeed.
Kerry is a weak candidate focusing on the wrong issues, but i think that will change in october. He is called the comeback kid
Though none of this really affects my choice, I consider myself a moderate/liberal republican and i'll be voting for Kerry due to my own personal benefits
John
ps not that my vote counts anyways
Kerry is a weak candidate focusing on the wrong issues, but i think that will change in october. He is called the comeback kid
Though none of this really affects my choice, I consider myself a moderate/liberal republican and i'll be voting for Kerry due to my own personal benefits
John
ps not that my vote counts anyways
09-15-2004, 02:24 PM
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Re: Nobody Likes Him
Originally Posted by Brian_C6
Another Right-Wing Bias Report.... "Fox News", "Dick Morris"... all Reps. What else do you expect?
Kerry has no consistent position on anything. he's likely to break the world record on not having a position on anything.
his campaign is nosediving and i think the article above, despite it's source and perceived journalistic bias raises a few good points about why.
step out of the box and be self-critical for once. it's healthy. it's okay.
09-15-2004, 02:26 PM
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Re: Nobody Likes Him
Originally Posted by GixxerRydin2K2
For someone who graduated from Yale, Bush sounds like someone who failed out of Bunker Hill CC, but when more than half this country is as dumb, or even dumber than him he still can succeed.
Kerry is a weak candidate focusing on the wrong issues,
Kerry is a weak candidate focusing on the wrong issues,
the kerry supporters don't like kerry. they just hate bush.
not really all that hard to understand.
i just wonder, what the point of propping up someone you don't like and don't support and who doesn't represent your viewpoint is supposed to accomplish - other than plausible deniability when he doesn't do well - which he won't. by backing away and saying, "well, i never really wanted him in the first place - but i wasn't left with any other choices".
seems like a cop-out.
09-15-2004, 02:29 PM
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Re: Nobody Likes Him
i'm likely voting for bush (surprise) and not because i'm voting against kerry. i've never thought my candidate of choice has all the answers that mesh with my ideology - but the important ones gel for me with GWB in my mind. i'll have a clear conscience. i'm not ingnoring kerry because he "isn't bush", i'm ignoring him because he really doesn't represent any viewpoint that i would agree with, that and it would seem to even the most causal observer that he's wildly inconsistent on any position of general importance to the regular citizen.
09-15-2004, 03:01 PM
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Re: Nobody Likes Him
Originally Posted by GixxerRydin2K2
For someone who graduated from Yale, Bush sounds like someone who failed out of Bunker Hill CC, but when more than half this country is as dumb, or even dumber than him he still can succeed.
Kerry is a weak candidate focusing on the wrong issues, but i think that will change in october. He is called the comeback kid
Though none of this really affects my choice, I consider myself a moderate/liberal republican and i'll be voting for Kerry due to my own personal benefits
John
ps not that my vote counts anyways
Kerry is a weak candidate focusing on the wrong issues, but i think that will change in october. He is called the comeback kid
Though none of this really affects my choice, I consider myself a moderate/liberal republican and i'll be voting for Kerry due to my own personal benefits
John
ps not that my vote counts anyways
09-15-2004, 03:02 PM
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Re: Nobody Likes Him
Originally Posted by ftrain
well that pretty much supports the basis of the article i posted.
the kerry supporters don't like kerry. they just hate bush.
not really all that hard to understand.
i just wonder, what the point of propping up someone you don't like and don't support and who doesn't represent your viewpoint is supposed to accomplish - other than plausible deniability when he doesn't do well - which he won't. by backing away and saying, "well, i never really wanted him in the first place - but i wasn't left with any other choices".
seems like a cop-out.
the kerry supporters don't like kerry. they just hate bush.
not really all that hard to understand.
i just wonder, what the point of propping up someone you don't like and don't support and who doesn't represent your viewpoint is supposed to accomplish - other than plausible deniability when he doesn't do well - which he won't. by backing away and saying, "well, i never really wanted him in the first place - but i wasn't left with any other choices".
seems like a cop-out.
09-15-2004, 03:40 PM
#13
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Re: Nobody Likes Him
Originally Posted by ftrain
the saddest thing Brian, is that you actually believe it's some big fox news spin-a-whirl conspiracy.
Kerry has no consistent position on anything. he's likely to break the world record on not having a position on anything.
his campaign is nosediving and i think the article above, despite it's source and perceived journalistic bias raises a few good points about why.
step out of the box and be self-critical for once. it's healthy. it's okay.flip-flop as the Rep party says... it's a stupid tactic and one typical of your propaganda filled cabinet. Just like the last election with Internet / Gore
Kerry has no consistent position on anything. he's likely to break the world record on not having a position on anything.
his campaign is nosediving and i think the article above, despite it's source and perceived journalistic bias raises a few good points about why.
step out of the box and be self-critical for once. it's healthy. it's okay.flip-flop as the Rep party says... it's a stupid tactic and one typical of your propaganda filled cabinet. Just like the last election with Internet / Gore
Those stupid artificial facts you posted are completely false. Kerry doesn't flip-flop as the Reps say. It's exactly like the Gore/Internet crap..... You hear something enough, and you begin to believe it. It's a form of brainwashing and your party is good at it. It's exactly like the crap we got with the WMD's in Iraq. They haven't found so much as a bee-bee gun over there and we've been in control for over a year now.
Unlike your W, Kerry has a broader understanding of our Government System. He's been at it for something like 17 years and knows just how complex the system is. He may sway on some topics but creating a balanced govermental system isn't simple. There are up's & down's in all issues within government and at least he understands both sides. To me, that is a balanced individual with balanced choices... nothing is clear cut. Republicans are cut throat politicians with no real sight of the bigger picture.
I think Democrats feel Goverment (economy-wise) should be structured from the bottom / up and Republican's think Goverment (economy-wise) should be structured from the top / down. I think you have a more successful econoomy by raising the bar higher at the bottom, rather than blowing the top off and getting the overspill to flow down. And, because I'm Ant-Iraq War, fall into the middle-class bracket, looking to build a career, and looking to buy a home.... Kerry is the president for me. His policies benefit my game plan and they give me a brighter outlook on my future.
I dislike Bush's views on many other important issues and (unlike yourself) I'll give you examples. I am Pro-Choice, I am Anti-Death Penalty, I'm for Gay Marriage, I'm for Freedom of Speech, and I'm for more Privacy. You're W is taking those rights away and most of them are based on Religion / Moral value. America Government was created with the purpose of controlling humanity without religious influence. I mean, look at the Middle East, Terrorists, etc.... we're trying to eliminate these religious idiots and at the same time, pushing for a higher moral / religious value here in America. I don't get it ... it's a very hypocritical time right now and I can't say I stand firmly behind all the decision making coming from the White House right now.
Brian
Last edited by Brian_C6; 09-15-2004 at 04:24 PM.
09-15-2004, 04:26 PM
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Re: Nobody Likes Him
That post alone leads me to believe you're a right-winger, read the boston herald, listen to Rush, and watch Fox News. Those media outlets say the same **** over and over again.
I don't readthe herald or listen to Bush...and while Fox MAY have a more right leaning TALK SHOW hosts they are the most bi-partison network out there... that is why they are the highest rated... I scan Fox, CNN, and mcnbc every night..and the spin the others put on things sound like they come stright from Micheal Moore...
Those stupid artificial facts you posted are completely false.
Kerry doesn't flip-flop as the Reps say.
In detroit he bragged his famliy had 6 SUV's...
then in front of the tree huggers in GA..when they asked him about it he denied having them...saying they are his families..not his
He STILL cannot make up his mind about the wat in Iraq...he is on record stating he was for the war..then only to grant W the authority to go to war
I could go on and on..
He's been at it for something like 17 years
How many Bills has kerry proposed in his 20+years in the senate.. 5
How many passed 0
He may sway on some topics
Republicans are cut throat politicians with no real sight of the bigger picture.
Hi pot...this is kettle...
I think Democrats feel Goverment (economy-wise) should be structured from the bottom / up and Republican's think Goverment (economy-wise) should be structured from the top / down.
raising the bar higher at the bottom
This is american..you work hard you succed..you don't work hard..go somewhere else...
His policies benefit my game plan and they give me a brighter outlook on my future.
Pro-Choice
Anti-Death Penalty
Gay Marriage
I'm for Freedom of Speech, and I'm for more Privacy.
Religion / Moral value.
higher moral / religious value here in America.
Religion is not a bad word..I am far from religous but WTF..just because some priest touched little boys does not mean it has no value...
Faith is a good thing
09-15-2004, 09:46 PM
#17
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Re: Nobody Likes Him
John, Clinton is the comeback kid. I know this because I'm reading his book right now.
Kerry has too many problems right now:
1. He focuses on the wrong ****. He should've dropped that Vietnam bit a loooong time ago.
2. He's got Bob Shrum working as his strategist - bad move! He has yet to get a democrat in office.
3. It took him too long to take a definitive stance on anything. You knew Bush was running on the "Security" idea. You had no clue what Kerry's m.o. was. If he had focused on the economy and health care, he'd be money right now, as most people think the economy sucks under Bush's reign.
4. His voting record isn't that great.
So I'm not voting for him.
Bush? Well, despite the disaster we call the Iraq war, there are two big things that stick out in my head about why I won't vote for him: abortion, and stem cell research. He lets his religious beliefs dictate policy, and that ain't cool.
Who am I voting for? Nope, not Nader. Michael Badnarik. Libertarian.
Kerry has too many problems right now:
1. He focuses on the wrong ****. He should've dropped that Vietnam bit a loooong time ago.
2. He's got Bob Shrum working as his strategist - bad move! He has yet to get a democrat in office.
3. It took him too long to take a definitive stance on anything. You knew Bush was running on the "Security" idea. You had no clue what Kerry's m.o. was. If he had focused on the economy and health care, he'd be money right now, as most people think the economy sucks under Bush's reign.
4. His voting record isn't that great.
So I'm not voting for him.
Bush? Well, despite the disaster we call the Iraq war, there are two big things that stick out in my head about why I won't vote for him: abortion, and stem cell research. He lets his religious beliefs dictate policy, and that ain't cool.
Who am I voting for? Nope, not Nader. Michael Badnarik. Libertarian.
